2003-12-14 - 12:36 p.m.

Well, I'm back.

I'll be filling in the details of my trip, starting with the 17th of October, and going from there. I'm going to try to get them listed according to date along with the rest of this diary, so it won't look like a massive hole from july to december, but I don't know that the system will recognize my efforts. So, if your seeing this message, just head back to October in the older entries section.

On a seperate note, we caught Saddam. Good news for Iraqis, good news for Bush, better news for Dean. Allow me to explain. Dean would seem to be the loser in this situation: Bush caught Saddam, an embarrasing situation has been ended, and the country will now pull together behind our victorious president. But, the president will have to claim that capturing Saddam will bring the occupation and the resistance to a quick end: the administration has been saying for months that the resistance is linked to Ba'athist 'dead-enders' loyal to Saddam, and that once Saddam is caught, the resistance will end. Bush has built up very high expectations on that score, even though it tried to water the message down later by claiming they were Al Qa'ida operatives as well. And Saddam's capture is not going to be enough by itself: Saddam never actually did anything to the US, so most of the anti-Saddam feeling is pretty skin-deep, if loud. Unless there is a significant decrease in violence and a drop in US combat deaths, the swing upwards for Bush will be shortlived. And if the resistance continues, which I'm fairly sure it will, the American people are going to have to ask themselves what exactly the resistance is fighting for, and the only answer left is for the end of the occupation. Saddam's capture may even increase the violence: Iraqis who supported the occupation out of fear of a Saddamist resurgence may now feel able to join the resistance. In a sense, we've neutralized our trump card for Iraqi loyalty.

There may have been a constituency in the US for taking out Saddam, but there is little feeling for continuing an unpopular occupation strictly for Imperialist reasons. Bush faces the 'Mission Accomplished' problem again, but in a much more serious form: instead of prematurely declaring victory, he now faces a premature victory. Staying in Iraq is essential to the Bushies plans for a US base in the MIddle East, which is essential to their plans for maintaining US dominance in the world, but now there is no reason to stay in Iraq except for those geopolitical reasons, and it's hard to sell those reasons to people who are losing their sons and daughters for it.

As for Dean, he'll take a blow in popularity over this situation at first, but he'll keep on message, and when the mood starts to sour again on the occupation, he'll be the man who stuck by his principles despite the polls, which is just about the most powerful role to play in an election.

So, let's raise a glass and toast the final downfall of a polluted man, responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands, and one of the more vicious dictators to sully the globe since the Shah. Just remember that it was the US soldiers who captured Saddam, not Bush.

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